2022 house of representatives election prediction

Election Day arrived with 217 seats in the Solid, Likely or Lean Republican category putting Republicans only two seats away from the majority, according to the forecast. Hover or click through to see the share of votes were forecasting for each candidate. The president's party lost 48 or more U.S. House seats in 11 of the 50 elections since 1918, ranging from 97 seats lost under President Herbert Hoover in 1930 to 48 seats lost under Presidents Lyndon Johnson (1966) and Gerald Ford (1974). Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger is seeking a third term in a district President Joe Biden won by 6 points in 2020 but now-Gov. With ten days until the November 8 midterm elections, political forecasters and pollsters say Republicans appear to have a strong chance of retaking control of the House of Representatives.. -- Going solely by presidential partisanship, our moves in Alaska and South Texas would seem odd, but each areahaskeyidiosyncrasies. KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The spending decisions by big outside House groups can inform us about the most competitive House races. Given the expected impact of redistricting, however, Democrats probably need a larger lead to keep control of the House. Gibbs defeated Meijer in the primary. [49] Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of June 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight.[50][51]. Ballotpedia tracked 39 districts (8.5%) as battleground races. These maps reflect the ratings of a number of quantitative and qualitative forecasters, as well as some consensus projections. Broken down by the winner's party, the average MOV was 27.7 percentage points for Democrats and 30.2 percentage points for Republicans. 2018 ABC News Internet Ventures. The court also extended the filing deadline from March 22, 2022, to April 15, 2022. Rasmussen Reports is a media company specializing in the collection, publication and distribution of public opinion information. [58] Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of June 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight. Considered the weaker side, a $100 bet on the Democrats would yield a profit of $225 in the case of an upset. Five of the chamber's six non-voting members were up for election as well. TheCurrent Houseview on the map shows incumbent members in their current districts. Hover over a district for more information. Crime has become KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- We are making a couple of House rating changes this week, both of which are to the benefit of members who won recent special elections. If we assume that redistricting will be worth an additional 10 House seats to the GOP, Democrats would likely need a lead of at least 10 points on the generic ballot in order to maintain control of the lower chamber. "[32] Those districts and incumbents are listed in the table below. You can also view these ratingsas a table. -- Our final House pick is 237-198 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 24 . Quebec Election 2022 Date: October 3rd, 2022. Nightly polling on politics, business and lifestyle topics provides the content to update the Rasmussen Reports web site many times each day. We work hard to make predictions that are both accurate and defensible. The seat of the Resident Commissioner of Puerto Rico, whose functions are similar to the delegates, was not up for election this year. President Biden's approval numbers posted every weekday, Assessing the Impact of Absentee Voting on Turnout and Democratic Vote Margin in 2020 By Alan I. Abramowitz, State Polls Give Biden Strong Lead in Electoral College as First Debate Looms By Alan I. Abramowitz, Comparing National Polls in 2016 and 2020 By Alan I. Abramowitz, Medicare for All a Vote Loser in 2018 U.S. House Elections By Alan I. Abramowitz, Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll, available for $4.95 a month or 34.95 a year, Not Woke Yet? Heading into the election, Democrats had a 220-212 majority. All 435 seats will be contested, most with redrawn boundaries. Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own forecast for the 435 House elections in 2022. Clickme! 2022 Election Results Republicans have won the House, regaining control of the chamber for the first time since 2018. Ranging from true toss-ups to just barely on the competitive radar, this map shows as 'undecided' any district not considered 'safe' for the incumbent party in our Consensus 2022 House Forecast. The figures shown are total numbers. Notice any bugs or missing polls? MAJORITY 255 REP SEATS 240 225 225 240 255 DEM SEATS 84 in 100 84 in 100 Republicans win . With over 37% vote share, they won 74 of the 125 seats. Will it be a close race or, um, not? Governor Spencer Cox (R) signed SB170 into law, moving the candidate filing deadline to March 4, 2022. Note: Ballotpedia does not consider these seats to be open when calculating congressional competitiveness data. House.[5]. He's happy to chat about weather forecasting too. Leading candidates forecasted chance of winning and margin of victory in the top 50 competitive districts. CA-13, IN-01, MI-07, NV-01, OH-01, OH-09, PA-08, PA-17, RI-02, WA-08 move to Leans Republican; CT-05, IL-17, ME-02, MI-08, MN-02, NY-17, NY-19, OR-06 to Leans Democratic. Denotes the party that had more seats in the U.S. House following the election. Items are listed in reverse chronological order by date of change, with the most recent change appearing first. The incumbent party Coalition Avenir Quebec led by Franois Legault registered a massive win in the last election. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2022 House forecast. The results in Table 2 show that the generic ballot and the number of seats defended by the presidents party have strong and statistically significant effects in both House and Senate elections. From Wikimedia Commons, the free media repository. Gibbs unofficially withdrew from his primary after announcing his retirement on April 9, 2022. [47][48], The following table displays members included in the NRCC's Patriot Program for the 2022 election cycle. The final 2022 House ratings from Cook Political Report. 2024 House Interactive Map 2024 Pundit Forecasts 2022 House Polls 2022 House Simulation View Your 2022 District 2022 House Retirements 2022 House Election Results. [2] Ten districts were open because the incumbent lost in a primary. The North Carolina State Board of Elections announced that candidate filing, having been suspended by the state supreme court in December 2021, would resume on February 24, 2022, and conclude on March 4, 2022. Edited by Kyle Kondik, J. [66][67], Cook's 2022 PVI report included the following congressional district statistics following the 2020 election cycle:[68]. If you're looking to stake $100 at -350, you will make a $28.57 profit if the elephant prevails. Before the election, Democrats held 36 of the open seats up for election, Republicans held 27, and five were newly created seats. In the House data, the only point that appears to be conspicuously far removed from the line is the one for 2002 the midterm election that occurred shortly after the 9/11 attacks at a time when the incumbent president, George W. Bush, remained extraordinarily popular. November 3:AK-AL moves from Tilts to Leans D; CA-13, IL-17, NY-17, RI-02, TX-34 Tilts D to Toss-up; CA-26, NY-25, PA-12 Safe to Likely D; CA-47, CA-49, IL-13, NY-04, OR-04 Leans to Tilts D; CO-08, IA-03, OR-05, VA-02 Toss-up to Tilts R; CT-05 Leans D to Toss-up; FL-13 Likely to Leans R; NY-01 Tilts to Leans RRead the analysis ($) >. Sablan ran as an independent from 2008 to 2020. These numbers do not include the U.S. territories, Washington D.C., or Louisiana. There are 26 seats rated as Toss Up races where neither party has a significant advantage. Senate, House, and Governor Election results also available at ABCNews.com * This is FiveThirtyEights best guess as to who the nominee will be, based on an analysis of incumbency, polls, fundraising, previous experience and endorsements. The congressional make up prior to the election was seven Democrats and . Ellis' calculations included blank votes in this race. Fifty-two districts were open because the incumbent did not run for re-election, five were open because they were newly created districts where no incumbent filed to run. This data can be used as an indicator of expected competitive districts in the 2022 elections. Senate Projection. However, our forecast does not take into account the specific seats that are on the ballot in 2022, only the numbers of Democratic and Republican seats. Joe Kent defeated Herrera Beutler in the primary. Check out our, There is no secret sauce. Search our Site: . 2022 United States House of Representatives Predictions. 08/10/2022 05:00 AM EDT. File usage on Commons. [61] Five states (Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina, and Oregon) gained one seat each, and Texas gained two seats. Redistricting has no bearing on Senate elections, and the 2022 Senate map appears favorable for Democrats. A model using the generic ballot and seat exposure shows that a single digit lead on the generic ballot would give Democrats a good chance to keep control of the Senate. External Relations: Moira Delaney Hannah Nelson Caroline Presnell House results have ranged from a loss of 64 seats to a gain of eight seats while Senate results have ranged from a loss of 13 seats to a gain of four seats. There are three tiers of the program, with each requiring that candidates meet more rigorous goals in order to qualify. What Election Day looks like based on polls alone, What Election Day looks like based on polls, fundraising, past voting patterns and more, What Election Day looks like when we add experts ratings to the Classic forecast. Governor Charlie Baker (R) signed a bill into law that rescheduled the state's primary election from September 20, 2022, to September 6, 2022. We default to the Deluxe . Even if Republicans fail to win any of the 26 Toss Up races just 1 of the 26 would give them the majority they are currently projected to gain 4 seats. The table below includes election results for districts that were open at the time the state held its congressional primary. Each partys chances of winning every House seat. This is an interactive House map derived from the Deluxe version of theFiveThirtyEight 2022 Election Forecast. For 2022 to qualify historically as a wave election, Democrats must lose 48 U.S. House seats in 2022. Click here to contact our editorial staff, and click here to report an error. Brian Kemp's strength at the top of the ticket. . Alaska. GOP Rep. Steve Chabot survived 2020, but Ohio''s new congressional map could be too steep a hill for him to climb. Based on the Senate results, a one-point increase or decrease in the generic ballot margin for the presidents party would be expected to produce a swing of about 0.2 seats and every additional seat defended by the presidents party would be expected to produce a net loss of more than 0.8 seats. Toss-up to Leans R: CA-22, IL-17, IN-01, MI-07, NV-03, OH-01, OH-09, PA-17, RI-02, TX-34. Before Johnson had his first midterm in 1966, he was re-elected president in 1964. Find out how all this works in our. All 435 districts were up for election. The current breakdown of the House (allocating vacant seats to the party that last won them) is 222 Democrats and 213 Republicans. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var e in a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.getElementById("datawrapper-chart-"+e)||document.querySelector("iframe[src*='"+e+"']");if(t)(t.style.height=a.data["datawrapper-height"][e]+"px")}}))}(); 2022 U.S. House Elections with multiple incumbents. Click here to change which version of the model you see. A lead of that magnitude would predict a Republican gain of one seat in the House and a Democratic gain of two seats in the Senate giving Democrats a 221-214 seat majority in the House and a 52-48 seat majority in the Senate. Taylor ran in the Republican primary on March 1, 2022, and advanced to the primary runoff. The closest U.S. House race in 2022 was in Colorado's 3rd Congressional District, where Lauren Boebert (R) defeated Adam Frisch (D) by a margin of 0.17%, or 546 votes out of more than 300,000 cast. The section below provides generic congressional polling averages over time from RealClearPolitics. Two predictors largely explain the variation in seat swing in midterm elections: the generic ballot and the number of House and Senate seats defended by the presidents party. For more information about the redistricting process in those states where multiple U.S. House incumbents ran in the same district, see: Ballotpedia's Annual Congressional Competitiveness report for 2022 includes information on the number of elections featuring candidates from both major parties, the number of open seats, and more. Size of this PNG preview of this SVG file: 424 600 pixels. Send us an email. Republicans are enthusiastic about their chances of taking over the U.S. House of Representatives in the midterm elections of 2022. All Rights Reserved. Alabama. Ballotpedia identified 33 of the 435 House races (8.5%) as battlegrounds. The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data. I use the estimates from these models to make conditional forecasts of the results of the 2022 House and Senate elections. These boundaries will be in effect through 2022. Figure 1 displays a scatterplot of the relationship between the forecasts generated by the generic ballot model and the actual seat swing in House and Senate elections between 1946 and 2018. [1] 2022 Kentucky General Election: Live updates and the latest news from polls in Louisville Rae Johnson, Caleb Stultz, Ana Roco lvarez Brez and Stephanie Kuzydym, Louisville Courier Journal. A net loss of only a handful of House seats and a single Senate seat next November would give Republicans control of both chambers. For a list of seats that opened up as a result of an incumbent losing re-election in a primary, see the following section. Elections to the U.S. House were held on November 8, 2022. Click here for more information about apportionment after the 2020 census. if("undefined"==typeof window.datawrapper)window.datawrapper={};window.datawrapper["sOA7J"]={},window.datawrapper["sOA7J"].embedDeltas={"100":464,"200":443,"300":421,"400":421,"500":400,"700":400,"800":400,"900":400,"1000":400},window.datawrapper["sOA7J"].iframe=document.getElementById("datawrapper-chart-sOA7J"),window.datawrapper["sOA7J"].iframe.style.height=window.datawrapper["sOA7J"].embedDeltas[Math.min(1e3,Math.max(100*Math.floor(window.datawrapper["sOA7J"].iframe.offsetWidth/100),100))]+"px",window.addEventListener("message",function(a){if("undefined"!=typeof a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var b in a.data["datawrapper-height"])if("sOA7J"==b)window.datawrapper["sOA7J"].iframe.style.height=a.data["datawrapper-height"][b]+"px"}); if(document.getElementsByClassName("reference").length==0) if(document.getElementById('Footnotes')!==null) document.getElementById('Footnotes').parentNode.style.display = 'none'; Communications: Alison Graves Carley Allensworth Abigail Campbell Sarah Groat Caitlin Vanden Boom Rep. Jackie Walorski (R) died on August 3, 2022. Election Day Live Results: Choose a map to follow along as the votes are counted and races are called. In 2022, Sablan is running as a Democrat. In 2018, Democrats won 15 of POLITICOs 22 Toss Up contests in their 40-seat wave election. Congressional redistricting was completed after the 2020 census for 435 of the 435 seats (100%) in the U.S. House of Representatives. Nineteen races did not feature a Democratic candidate and 12 races did not feature a Republican candidate.[19]. Ballotpedia considers a seat to be open if the incumbent representative did not file to run for re-election or if they filed for re-election but withdrew before the primary. A seat created as a result of a state gaining a new congressional district due to apportionment is also considered open if no incumbent is running in it. For those who are really into the numbers, Platinum Members can review demographic crosstabs and a full history of our data. We value on-the-ground sourcing above everything else. Click or tap any of the thumbnails for an interactive version that you can use to create and share your own 2022 House forecast. We'll always be transparent about why we're making a certain rating. These battleground races were selected using the following criteria. A special election for the seat was held concurrently with the general election on November 8. Senate. U.S. House waves from 1918 to 2016 are listed in the table below. -- The goal is to use micro level (congressional district and state) competitiveness assessments in combination with their electoral history to statistically generate an accurate prediction of the KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- A congressional forecasting model using political and economic fundamentals suggests that Republicans are favored to flip both the House and the Senate. Premier Franois Legault and his Coalition Avenir Qubec are certain to win the next provincial election. TheInteractiveand2023views use redistricted lines,placing incumbents where applicable. In the 2014 primary for Virginia's 7th Congressional District, House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R), ranked behind only then-Speaker John Boehner (R) in Republican House leadership, was defeated by economics professor Dave Brat (R). Nine incumbents six Democrats and three Republicans were defeated. Due to rounding, forecasts do not add to 100 in some races. This article summarizes congressional and state legislative actions in each state in the 2020 cycle. Search our Site: . He withdrew before the runoff. The final2022 House Power Rankingsfrom Fox News. The map and table below show the U.S. House races without major opposition in 2022 and the party that won each seat. Alan I. Abramowitz is the Alben W. Barkley Professor of Political Science at Emory University and a senior columnist with Sabatos Crystal Ball. The forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we get a new poll. Six states (Texas, Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina, and Oregon) gained districts, and seven states (California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia) lost districts. Table 1 shows that the presidents party has lost House seats in 17 of 19 midterm elections since World War II and Senate seats in 13 of 19. The darker the square, the greater the likelihood this will occur. In 2022, 52 districts were open because the incumbent did not run for re-election. Our forecast has three versions. The table below lists changes made to election dates and deadlines in the 2022 election cycle. In that race, Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) defeated Rita Hart (D) by a margin of 6 votes out of nearly 400,000 cast, the narrowest margin of victory in any U.S. House election since 1984. We use polling where appropriate, but we always factor in our understanding of the pollster's quality. Republicans' South Texas surge could net them this congressional seat. House Democrats' most iconoclastic member, Rep. Jared Golden, is betting his brand of centrism can overcome a challenging political environment. We can use the results from the regression equations in Table 2 to generate conditional forecasts of seat swing in the 2022 House and Senate elections. Most Voters Reject Anti-White Beliefs. Pollsters that did not release any horse-race polls within three weeks of an election since 1998 do not have a grade and are treated as a C+ by the grade filter. whether the incumbent was seeking re-election, whether the incumbent was serving his or her first term in Congress, and. The larger the presidential partys deficit on the generic ballot and the more seats it is defending, the more seats it tends to lose. Each square represents an instance where Democrats or Republicans get that much of the popular vote and that many seats. Click here for our coverage of special elections to the 117th Congress. A few weeks ago, Crystal Ball Managing Editor Kyle Kondik wrote about the 1978 and 1982 midterms. San Nicolas (D), the delegate representing Guam's At-Large Congressional District, retired to run for governor. [35][36] Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of May 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight. [42] As of June 9, 2022, the NRCC listed 75 districts on its target district list. The Rio Grande Valley swung sharply to the right in the last election. 100% remote. As with the House, the margin of control in the next Senate is likely to be very narrow. Visit. Forecasts from outside this range can easily be generated by extrapolating from those shown in the table. This page provides an overview of the 2022 U.S. House election. These results indicate that one should interpret the models predictions for Senate seat swing cautiously as relatively large errors are not uncommon. An even, 50-50 split of the Toss Up districts would translate to a 17-seat Republican gain. If one assumes that both parties hold each of their two currently vacant seats, we know that Democrats will be defending 222 of 435 House seats and 14 of 34 Senate seats next year, then the only predictor whose value is unknown is the generic ballot. Lucca brings that KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- As we approach Election Day, the basic fundamentals of this midterm may be reasserting themselves, to the benefit of Republicans. Table 2 displays the results of regression analyses of House and Senate seat change in midterm elections between 1946 and 2018. Operations: Meghann Olshefski Mandy Morris Kelly Rindfleisch By Leke Baiyewu. Secretary of State Frank LaRose (R) called for the state legislative primary to be held on August 2, 2022 (the primary was originally scheduled for May 3, 2022). Steve outlines the four factors that have made control of the Senate a coin flip. By Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and J. All 435 seats will be contested, most with redrawn boundaries. Democratic Rep. Cindy Axne survived 2020, despite Donald Trump carrying her Des Moines-based district. There were 30 U.S. House Democratic battleground primaries in 2022. The table below includes election results for seats that were open because the incumbent lost re-election in a primary. Of those, 212 currently belong to Republicans and 220 to Democrats, with 3 . Ahead of the Quebec election on Oct. 3, Global News has profiled all 125 ridings in the province so you can find your riding, learn more about the local . In the Senate data, the point for 2002 is also well above the regression line while points for several other elections including 1962 and 1978 are also well above or below the line. The presidents party often loses ground in midterms, but the magnitude of those losses varies greatly depending on the national political environment and the seats held by each party prior to the election. This was more than in 2020 but fewer than at any other point in the preceding decade. Battle for the House 2022. The average MOV of in the U.S. House was 28.9 percentage points, the second smallest margin since 2012, and up slightly from 28.8 percentage points in 2020. [59][60], On April 26, 2021, the U.S. Census Bureau released its post-2020 census apportionment counts. The following table displays members listed as "On the Radar" in the NRCC's Young Guns program for the 2022 election cycle. As a result of the elections, Republicans gained a 222-213 majority. The size of the seat exposure effect is especially noteworthy considering that the number of Senate seats in play is only about one-twelfth of the number of House seats in play. Miles Coleman, and Larry J. Sabato. This analysis uses the following definitions: !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r

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